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09/23 12:44 CDT College football picks: USC set to knock off Ducks as teams
enter meat of season in prove-it mode
College football picks: USC set to knock off Ducks as teams enter meat of
season in prove-it mode
By ERIC OLSON
AP College Football Writer
After a lot of blowouts and a few thrillers to open the season, Week 4 is rife
with games between Associated Press Top 25 teams that could be ready to reveal
their true selves.
No matchup fits the theme more than No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 Southern
California, given the Ducks' shocking loss at Oklahoma State two weeks ago and
the Trojans' defensive issues under first-year coordinator Gary Patterson.
Also, can No. 4 Mississippi validate its win over LSU with another one as an
underdog at No. 21 Florida or are the Gators really good; is No. 17 Iowa's
offensive improvement fool's gold or will it get shut down at No. 18 Michigan;
and will No. 13 Penn State keep rolling in its Big Ten opener against Wisconsin
after playing a light nonconference schedule?
That's just a sample of the questions to be answered as the season moves into
conference play and the games become more competitive.
The picks, with rankings and betting lines. All games Saturday unless noted:
No. 1 Texas (minus 4 1/2) at No. 14 Tennessee
Arch Manning takes on Uncle Peyton's alma mater at sold-out Neyland Stadium. Does he meet the moment? Vols freshman QB Faizon Brandon gets his first major test and star RB DeSean Bishop is dinged up. Pick: Texas 27-21.
Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (minus 14)
Sooners have scored a total of 24 points in their last two games and, in a comment that rubbed fans the wrong way, John Mateer admitted it was a rise in crowd noise that clued him in he had an open receiver downfield for a touchdown pass against New Mexico. Pick: Georgia 30-14.
No. 3 Notre Dame (minus 28) at Purdue
Fighting Irish's offensive line was widely considered best in the nation coming into the season. Boilermakers can score, but not enough to offset what their defense gives up. Pick: Notre Dame 52-23.
No. 4 Mississippi (plus 3) at No. 21 Florida
Oddsmakers raised eyebrows when the Gators opened as the favorite. It's never easy playing at the Swamp and RB Kewan Lacy's status is uncertain but, with Trinidad Chambliss on a roll, Rebels will avoid a letdown. Pick: Mississippi 27-24.
Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana (minus 21) So far, so good for Northwestern with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and QB Aidan Chiles. Beating the Hoosiers in Bloomington on Friday night is too big an ask, though. Pick: Indiana 45-20.
Central Michigan at No. 6 Miami (minus 41)
Miami is banged up, which makes the timing fortuitious for playing a MAC team. Chippewas kept it close against Miami in 2019 but haven't beaten a Power Four team on the road since 2017 and have never beaten a top-10 opponent. Pick: Miami 48-6.
Illinois (plus 27 1/2) at No. 7 Ohio State Ohio State hasn't lost a home game against a Big Ten opponent other than Michigan (twice) since 2015. Illinois hasn't found its stride yet and won't this week. Pick: Ohio State 38-17.
South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama (minus 12)
Shane Beamer's future looks bleak after Gamecocks blew a 16-0 lead against Mississippi State and lost their sixth straight SEC game. Last two meetings with Alabama have been close but won't be this time. Pick: Alabama 44-21.
Sam Houston State at No. 11 Texas Tech (minus 34 1/2)
Texas Tech's J'Koby Williams got only seven carries against Houston last week. Look for him to be more involved against a defense that struggles against the run. Pick: Texas Tech 49-10.
Wisconsin (plus 10) at No. 13 Penn State
Penn State has been sharp against three overmatched opponents and now takes a big step up in its Big Ten opener. Pick: Penn State 26-21.
No. 15 Utah (minus 8) at Iowa State
Utah QB Devon Dampier has been sharp but will get his toughest test to date against an opponent whose strength is defense. Pick: Utah 28-14.
Wake Forest (plus 12 1/2) at No. 16 Louisville This has the makings of a high-scoring affair. The Cardinals' Lincoln Kienholz and Keyjuan Brown are on nice rolls coming out of the win over SMU and are playing at home. Pick: Louisville 38-34.
No. 17 Iowa (plus 5 1/2) at No. 18 Michigan In what figures to be a defensive battle, Iowa's offense is playing with more confidence. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood is getting better but has lost two fumbles and thrown an interception through three games. Pick: Iowa 17-14.
No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (minus 6)
Kamario Taylor has thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception through three games and will outplay Austin Simmons at home in a matchup of two QBs who have been revelations. Pick: Mississippi State 31-24.
No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 Southern California
(plus 3) Will the real Oregon and real USC stand up? Oregon had offensive line and defensive issues to work out after Oklahoma State. USC had an unexpected tussle at Rutgers. Pick: USC 28-27.
Missouri State at No. 22 SMU (minus 34 1/2)
Coming off the loss at Louisville, Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs will unleash some pent-up fury against the overmatched Bears. Pick: SMU 55-17.
No. 23 Texas A&M (plus 8) at No. 10 LSU
The Aggies hammered LSU on the road last year and make a return trip to Death Valley because of the SEC's conference schedule restructuring process. Pick: LSU 27-23.
No. 25 Houston at Georgia Southern
(plus 18 1/2) Lots of connections between these teams. Houston coach Willie Fritz led Georgia Southern to back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2014-15. Eagles coach Clay Helton played at Houston in 1993-94. Pick: Houston 33-19.
AP predictions scorecard Last week: Straight-up --- 15-4; Against spread --- 8-10-1. Season: Straight-up --- 46-9; Against spread --- 24-30-1. ___ Sign up for Top 25 poll alerts here, visit the Top 25 here and see AP's full college football coverage here
No. 1 Texas (minus 4 1/2) at No. 14 Tennessee
Arch Manning takes on Uncle Peyton's alma mater at sold-out Neyland Stadium. Does he meet the moment? Vols freshman QB Faizon Brandon gets his first major test and star RB DeSean Bishop is dinged up. Pick: Texas 27-21.
Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (minus 14)
Sooners have scored a total of 24 points in their last two games and, in a comment that rubbed fans the wrong way, John Mateer admitted it was a rise in crowd noise that clued him in he had an open receiver downfield for a touchdown pass against New Mexico. Pick: Georgia 30-14.
No. 3 Notre Dame (minus 28) at Purdue
Fighting Irish's offensive line was widely considered best in the nation coming into the season. Boilermakers can score, but not enough to offset what their defense gives up. Pick: Notre Dame 52-23.
No. 4 Mississippi (plus 3) at No. 21 Florida
Oddsmakers raised eyebrows when the Gators opened as the favorite. It's never easy playing at the Swamp and RB Kewan Lacy's status is uncertain but, with Trinidad Chambliss on a roll, Rebels will avoid a letdown. Pick: Mississippi 27-24.
Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana (minus 21) So far, so good for Northwestern with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and QB Aidan Chiles. Beating the Hoosiers in Bloomington on Friday night is too big an ask, though. Pick: Indiana 45-20.
Central Michigan at No. 6 Miami (minus 41)
Miami is banged up, which makes the timing fortuitious for playing a MAC team. Chippewas kept it close against Miami in 2019 but haven't beaten a Power Four team on the road since 2017 and have never beaten a top-10 opponent. Pick: Miami 48-6.
Illinois (plus 27 1/2) at No. 7 Ohio State Ohio State hasn't lost a home game against a Big Ten opponent other than Michigan (twice) since 2015. Illinois hasn't found its stride yet and won't this week. Pick: Ohio State 38-17.
South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama (minus 12)
Shane Beamer's future looks bleak after Gamecocks blew a 16-0 lead against Mississippi State and lost their sixth straight SEC game. Last two meetings with Alabama have been close but won't be this time. Pick: Alabama 44-21.
Sam Houston State at No. 11 Texas Tech (minus 34 1/2)
Texas Tech's J'Koby Williams got only seven carries against Houston last week. Look for him to be more involved against a defense that struggles against the run. Pick: Texas Tech 49-10.
Wisconsin (plus 10) at No. 13 Penn State
Penn State has been sharp against three overmatched opponents and now takes a big step up in its Big Ten opener. Pick: Penn State 26-21.
No. 15 Utah (minus 8) at Iowa State
Utah QB Devon Dampier has been sharp but will get his toughest test to date against an opponent whose strength is defense. Pick: Utah 28-14.
Wake Forest (plus 12 1/2) at No. 16 Louisville This has the makings of a high-scoring affair. The Cardinals' Lincoln Kienholz and Keyjuan Brown are on nice rolls coming out of the win over SMU and are playing at home. Pick: Louisville 38-34.
No. 17 Iowa (plus 5 1/2) at No. 18 Michigan In what figures to be a defensive battle, Iowa's offense is playing with more confidence. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood is getting better but has lost two fumbles and thrown an interception through three games. Pick: Iowa 17-14.
No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (minus 6)
Kamario Taylor has thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception through three games and will outplay Austin Simmons at home in a matchup of two QBs who have been revelations. Pick: Mississippi State 31-24.
No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 Southern California
(plus 3) Will the real Oregon and real USC stand up? Oregon had offensive line and defensive issues to work out after Oklahoma State. USC had an unexpected tussle at Rutgers. Pick: USC 28-27.
Missouri State at No. 22 SMU (minus 34 1/2)
Coming off the loss at Louisville, Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs will unleash some pent-up fury against the overmatched Bears. Pick: SMU 55-17.
No. 23 Texas A&M (plus 8) at No. 10 LSU
The Aggies hammered LSU on the road last year and make a return trip to Death Valley because of the SEC's conference schedule restructuring process. Pick: LSU 27-23.
No. 25 Houston at Georgia Southern
(plus 18 1/2) Lots of connections between these teams. Houston coach Willie Fritz led Georgia Southern to back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2014-15. Eagles coach Clay Helton played at Houston in 1993-94. Pick: Houston 33-19.
AP predictions scorecard Last week: Straight-up --- 15-4; Against spread --- 8-10-1. Season: Straight-up --- 46-9; Against spread --- 24-30-1. ___ Sign up for Top 25 poll alerts here, visit the Top 25 here and see AP's full college football coverage here
